The rising Neo-Totalitarian Axis: The Battle Against Ukraine, Europe and Democracy

In the evolving landscape of global geopolitics, a new threat emerges: the neo-totalitarian axis linking Moscow, Tehran, Beijing, and Pyongyang. This alliance represents a systemic challenge to international law and democratic values, seeking to undermine the rules-based global order through coordinated aggression and strategic cooperation. At the heart of this challenge lies the war in Ukraine, a critical battleground that symbolises the broader struggle between authoritarian ambitions and democratic sovereignty.

1. The fact that our enemies, those of Ukraine and Europe, form an axis and what we can deduce from this

2. The totalitarian nature of Putin's regime and what this implies both in terms of war and the prospects for a ceasefire and beyond for Europe

3. The American situation in broad terms

4. The crossroads where Europe finds itself and therefore the different paths it can take, from submission to Putin / Trump... To full and strengthened support for Ukraine and all that this implies

1. The neo-totalitarian axis: a global threat

What is happening in Ukraine is not an isolated conflict. We are witnessing the emergence of a neo-totalitarian axis. This axis links Moscow, Tehran, Beijing and Pyongyang in a joint, imperialist endeavour aimed at undermining the rules-based international order, extending their domination over nations and installing or consolidating their regimes of terror.

The collaboration between these regimes is no accident. In Ukraine, Iranian drones, North Korean missiles and Chinese electronic components are fuelling the Russian war machine. Emmanuel Macron put it well in his recent speech: Russia has already created a world war. This cooperation extends beyond the aggression against Ukraine: mutual diplomatic support, joint military exercises, circumvention of Western sanctions, and alignment of propaganda narratives.

These powers, despite their differences, share a common vision: a world where might is right, where spheres of influence replace the sovereignty of nations and where democracies are weakened and divided. Their convergence is creating a new axis of upheaval that is fundamentally transforming the geopolitical landscape.

The significance of this alliance is clear: we are not simply witnessing a regional war, one that is moreover one of denial and terrorism, but a systemic challenge to the foundations of international law and democratic and liberal values. A global counter-revolution is at work and could triumph in the next ten years if it is not defeated. In this sense, the future of our valiant Ukraine is the future of the world.

2. The underestimation of the totalitarian characteristics of Putin's regime and its implications remains a significant issue among Europeans.

Putin's Russia is not just an authoritarian state - it displays profoundly totalitarian characteristics. This ‘Russism’, as the Ukrainians call it, combines Russian imperialism, aggressive historical revisionism and total control of society, with fascist and racist traits, Stalinist heritage and police control, and extreme militarisation of the youth and the economy, which is itself under the thumb of a mafia-like caste.

The implications are serious. Firstly, a totalitarian regime cannot afford to fail without jeopardising its legitimacy. For Putin, defeat in Ukraine is existential - not only for his regime, but for his vision of a restored imperial Russia.

Secondly, the totalitarian nature of the regime explains why it is waging an all-out war against Ukrainian civilians: destruction of infrastructure, deportation of children, systematic torture. These acts are not ‘excesses’ but constituent elements of a war aimed at destroying Ukrainian identity. Diplomatic narratives that seek to ‘bring Putin to his senses’ miss the point because they do not understand totalitarian logic and reasoning. The so-called ‘realists’ and self-proclaimed pacifists are at best naïve people who live in the unreal world of transactional diplomacy, which already broke down on 24 February 2022.

Thirdly, this divorce from reality is painfully embodied in the fate of the victims of Russian terrorism. The rape of women, the rape and torture of prisoners, the murder of civilians, the deportation and Russification of children are not only crimes against humanity, they are the result of totalitarian Evil, and this cannot be appeased, as 160 Ukrainian intellectuals, including our friend Konstantin Sigov, made clear two months ago. The mistake of realists is often to condemn these crimes but to relegate them to the humanitarian, even legal, domain and to remove them from the political and diplomatic sphere. As a result, their strategic thinking is blinded. This leads them to assert and want to believe against the facts that Putin's war is above all territorial.

In this respect, the major success of recent weeks is the emergence of the fate of the deported children in the diplomatic negotiations. It has been our struggle from the start and represents immense hope for these children, but it is much more than that: it is a major issue for Ukraine and a major, systemic defeat for Putin if he were forced to give in.

Fourthly, is a ceasefire achievable? The military reality of a war in which neither side wins tends to suggest that it is. But the Putin regime is caught up in structural contradictions. On the one hand, its economy is in serious trouble. The war effort is totally militarised and accounts for 70% of the budget. Inflation officially stands at 10%, but the Russian Central Bank interest rate is 21%. Real inflation is therefore much higher. To finance the war, the government issues government bonds, which Russian banks buy and use as collateral with the central bank to obtain liquidity and lend to war industries. The central bank, which is still the owner of the famous assets, therefore creates money to indirectly finance the state, but automatically fuels inflation. Real financial reserves collapse by more than two-thirds, a fall masked by the rise in the price of gold, a reserve that is not liquid. So the economic factor is moving towards a ceasefire. But Putin's logic of denial prevents this, unless he can proclaim a victory over Ukraine by neutralising it. And that would only be a tactical pause of a few years. During this time, Russia will not convert its economy for peace; carried away like a ship on its way, it will continue to produce more and more bombs and missiles. It will be a tactical pause before a new assault on Ukraine or elsewhere. To paraphrase Raymond Aron, let's say an uncertain truce, unrealistic peace.

3.The American factor

In a story that is still far from being written, only the broad outlines can be discerned.

- A ‘business’ approach, predatory of mining and energy resources.

- A form of pacifism as obsessive as it is degenerate, which leads to the abandonment of any power struggle with Putin.

- A lack of knowledge, both of historical realities – the aggressions and crimes of the Putinist regime – and of the concrete situation of the neo-totalitarian axis, whose anti-Western convergence is profound.

- An ideological flirtation with Putin's narrative and propaganda.

- A vain hope of dissociating Russia from China, the famous ‘Kissinger reverse’ in a context that makes it unlikely.

- An abandonment of American values in the United States and around the world.

- An autocratic and plutocratic drift that is leading America to the brink.

- A possible destruction of NATO, which is extremely dangerous for Europe

- In the end, instead of Make America Great Again, the slope of a Make America Fall Irrelevant Again.

4. Europe at a crossroads

Faced with this situation, Europe is confronted with the most important existential choice since the end of the Second World War.

The first path is that of accommodation - accepting Russian demands, gradually abandoning Ukraine, and hoping that the appetite of the ogre Putin will be satisfied with territorial concessions. This approach, which is dangerously reminiscent of the 1930s, would inevitably lead to the dislocation of the European continent, with state after state falling under Russian influence. Europe's acceptance with ‘cowardly relief’ of a ceasefire negotiated between Trump and Putin to the detriment of Ukraine, through the cession of territories, forced neutrality, partial disarmament and the ousting of President Zelensky, would seal this submission, as would the abandonment of children and deported populations.

The second path is that of a much stronger commitment to Ukraine coupled with European strategic autonomy. This option requires massive rearmament, a substantial increase in defence budgets (to around 3-4% of GDP), and unwavering solidarity with Kyiv.

We are not there yet. Europeans are talking about sending troops to guarantee a ceasefire, not to strengthen and protect Ukraine immediately in order to force Putin to silence his weapons. They are sticking to Trump's logic, which they are afraid to challenge. They are sticking to the logic of ‘non-escalation’, even if there are positive signs such as the outline of a coalition of volunteer countries that goes beyond the EU.

Europe is a great idea, but it can only be built around a coalition for Ukraine. This path requires a long-term vision. But it is the only one that preserves European values and security.

The great German historian and defender of Ukraine, Karl Schlögel, reminds us in his recent essay that what is at stake in Kyiv is the future of Europe. He does so by recalling Milan Kundera's famous text ‘The Kidnapped West’ about the Hungarian revolution of 1956 crushed by Soviet tanks. No, Russian tanks will not come to Paris or even Berlin, but just as seriously, it is the idea of Europe that is at stake in Ukraine.

Ukraine's struggle is our struggle. Its resistance is our protection. Its valour must be our inspiration.