‘As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine’s security?

By Lawrence Freedman. Extracts of his full Substack publication, 10 October 2025

(...) In all of this what may have been missed is that the plan now connected with a coalition of the willing is not a security guarantee. As I mentioned the credibility of NATO’s Article V depends not just on the formal commitment to treat an attack on one as an attack on all but measures if place to ensure that the alliance is present from the start should an adversary attack. This is what it is being planned.

The starting point is that the ‘deter and defend’ role will remain primarily for Ukraine, and that the role of the coalition is to make that more effective and credible.

As the concept has evolved it has acquired three elements. First, boosting the Ukrainians’ own forward defences. The best deterrent will be a super-fortified front line, manned by Ukrainian troops, but with external logistical and technical support, to ensure that it is able to blunt any future Russian offensive. There might be a few European brigades but only as a back-up. Second, air defences, including manned aircraft, organised from bases in Poland and Romania. Third, a black sea fleet, possibly led by Turkey, that would clear mines and keep open trade routes. The importance of both the air and sea components is that they support economic activity, which is essential to Ukraine’s recovery.

There is a potential element of ‘tripwire’ in all of this, in that is the Russians breached the front-lines there might be clashes involving Western troops, which could trigger a much deeper involvement. But as far as I am aware the sort of issues normally raised by security guarantees, including the nuclear aspect, have not yet been discussed. This was implied by European requests that the US provide a ‘backstop’ but while Trump never quite ruled this out he hardly seemed enthusiastic.

At the start of the war, when Ukraine’s own military capacity was limited then both its current fight and its future security appeared to depend totally on its partners. In key respects this is still the case. Economic, military, and intelligence assistance remains vital. Yet something has happened to Ukraine over this period. It has built up its industrial capacity to a remarkable extent. It now provides around 60 percent of its own kit and ammunition. It has become a major innovator and producer in drone warfare. Some 4.5 million drones will be produced this year. It has unmatched operational experience which it now shares with European countries.

Recall that one of Putin’s objectives in 2022 was to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. He has achieved the opposite. When Zelenskyy responded to the drones dropping into Poland by offering advice on anti-drone measures, he was not being cute. Ukraine is to the fore in these technologies, as well as innovating constantly. It is now a potential exporter.

Ukraine is becoming a de facto member of NATO. When the Ukrainians say that they are defending Europe’s borders they are correct. If they fail then the risks for NATO countries will become even greater, and they will be worrying about more than the occasional probes that reveal the leakiness of their air defences. Zelenskyy turns up to alliance meetings. His armed forces work closely with alliance partners and its arms industry is cooperating with Western manufacturers. Because of the threat from Russia’s missiles and drones, Ukrainians are locating their factories in other countries, most recently Denmark. More of that may be necessary, which may in turn add to the Russian pressure on Europe.

One suggestion arising from the Russian drone intrusions into Europe is that a defensive shield be established from inside Ukraine, and if Ukraine is going to be involved then should it not also protect Ukrainian territory? Perhaps the No-Fly Zone that appeared to be such an outlandish proposal in 2022 will start to appear reasonable in the face of Russian provocations. The issue has moved beyond security guarantees, and the concept of the ‘coalition of the willing’ needs to be untethered from that role.

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NATO countries will not be rushing to declare war on Russia on Ukraine’s behalf. Nor will Ukraine join NATO yet as a full member. But the new security situation has developed through incremental steps, each one large enough to make a difference but not so large as to trigger a major war. Because of this Ukraine is becoming integrated into European security structures. It may not be a member of NATO but it is becoming part of the coalition of the willing.